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FlashMarsh
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Monday, September 5 2011, 1:58 pm EST

Age: 25
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Welcome, Comrades, in our mission to remove the Devil's from this world. I am Rev. Herbert from London, who has persuaded Rev. Barnes to join this cause or removing the evil from this world. Although peaceful preaching is all very well, some are stubborn and cannot be persuaded to join us, so we are forced to act with violence. Of course Rev. Barnes cannot preach with blood on his hands, which is why you, John and David, are here today. Your work may be dangerous, but we are rewarding you greatly with both earthly gifts and gifts in the afterlife. May God be on our side.

-----------------

Welcome Mafia! Please post all night actions here and discuss!

You should tell each other your roles. Try and inform each other of of your abilities as best you can.
canadianstickdeath
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 4:40 am EST

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I'm Dave. I can kill or silence, both have 50% chance to fail. That's basically all I was told. I have a question about the silencing, guyguy. Is the target allowed to post at all during the next day? Or is it the "limit 3 posts" that you often see.

Silver?! Again?! Lol.

I was able to evade suspicion in my first two games, where I was mafia, but they didn't know me as well as you guys do. I'm not exactly confident I'll be able to do it again.

Not sure what the point of that 50% chance of failure on my kill is. The 50% failure rate basically means that, unless I'm the only person left alive, I'm not going to be killing, unless all of your kills have a chance of failure as well or my kill would be in addition to the main mafia kill. So it basically means I'm only ever going to be silencing... which also might fail. I've never really liked the silencer power, both as a host and as a player of any alignment. My PM doesn't specify much about how the silencing works. It might be the "limit 3 posts" that you often see, or it could be actual silencing where they can't post at all. If it's the "limit 3 posts" variety, a big part of what that does is just give the town more information to analyze. I'm vaguely considering faking being silenced for the whole game... but if the game has a watcher, that probably wouldn't work out.

Please tell me your roles are more useful than mine.
Silver
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 4:48 am EST

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I am Rev. Barnes. I'm the investigator. Immune to investigation myself, and I take one vote more to lynch.

I'm pretty sure I'm more useful than you, CSD.

ALSO WHY THE HELL AM I ALWAYS MAFIA
Maybe I'm destined to be evil or something.
canadianstickdeath
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 5:25 am EST

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I've been mafia twice before, too. 1 win, 1 loss. SSBB2 I died to Serial Killer (who won, but IMO shouldn't have, though I'm not saying he didn't play well). MM6 I died to a Vigilante that had been inactive for the whole game up until we tried to make a move to end it that day... -_- Somehow the last guy managed to pull out a win, IDK how. We were terribly underpowered, so it was a miracle we even managed to get close, let alone win.

So... How do you want to go about this whole Thomas situation? We both promised to lynch each other on the first day, lol.
Silver
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 5:28 am EST

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If he gets too annoying, I say we launch the lynches.
canadianstickdeath
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 6:09 am EST

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I said I was going to bring it up D1, and I think I might have to follow through with it... not sure.

Your ability to take one more vote than normal to lynch is interesting. If you survive to end game, it'll be game over earlier than the town suspects. In addition, your role as a "Beloved Townie" (which is the typical name for the one-more-vote-needed ability) should be readily confirmable. That is, if you get into trouble, you can simply claim. If the town wishes to test it, suggest that they put you at L-1, and then you will vote and unvote for yourself in the same post. Whereas this would normally end the day with your lynch, you would instead not be lynched, and your claim will be verified. (Maybe it's better if, after you claim, I suggest this method of confirming your role, and then you agree to it). It gets better when you realize that nobody can detect you in order to show that you're actually mafia. The only danger could be if you get watched or tracked, and somebody sees that you're targeting people, when supposedly you should have no action. Hopefully, an SK doesn't target you because you're "confirmed", lol. But don't worry too much about claiming for now. This could allow me to be suspicious of you without having to worry too much about you being lynched as a result.

I noticed you have a tendency to be suspicious of your fellow mafiats, almost to the point of tunneling them. Just, do your best to forget that you know who the mafiats really are. Play as if you were town, and look for things that you might consider to be scummy in others' posts. One thing that might work is to recall how you acted in past games as scum and try to notice that type of play in others.

The fact that you are investigation immune means that this game almost certainly has a detective. I'd bet that I'll be one of the first targets, no matter what I do... :/
jazz
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 7:12 pm EST

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'guyguyxtreme' said:
You are John, a town person who does nothing except drink beer at the local pub. Your only source of income is from doing Rev. Barnes bidding.
------------------------
You are a Drunk Thug-Roleblocker, MAFIA Aligned. Each night you can either choose to kill or roleblock, each with a 50% chance of failing. Your fellow mafia members are Silver and CSD.


Really sorry about not posting; was busy
FlashMarsh
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 7:43 pm EST

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I forgot to mention that if you voth target to kill the same person there is garanteed success. 3 posts rule applies for silencing. Maybe the generator thinks you are evil Silver?
jazz
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 9:42 pm EST

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What generator do you use, anyways?
canadianstickdeath
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Tuesday, September 6 2011, 10:07 pm EST

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So wait, both Jazz and I can target somebody for a kill on the same night? Is Silver allowed to perform kills? :S

The mean number of kills we can expect, per night, if Jazz and I always target different people, is 1, which is the same we can expect from targeting the same person. With targeting one person, there's a chance that they could be protected, so we could be better off spreading the kills around, but I still think I'd prefer having full control over who dies. The only way I could see myself using the kills on different people is if the 25% chance that two deaths occur is basically our last shot at winning.
Isa
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Monday, September 12 2011, 1:26 pm EST
No. I'm an octopus.

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Has this been resolved?
canadianstickdeath
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Monday, September 12 2011, 8:55 pm EST

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I still dunno if Silver is allowed to kill.
Silver
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Monday, September 12 2011, 11:26 pm EST

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PM doesn't say if I can kill or not.
canadianstickdeath
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Monday, September 12 2011, 11:53 pm EST

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Silver, why are you hidden? It's only going to make any mods in this game suspicious of you...

Jazz, when town, I'm often suspicious of people who "reserve judgement" or whatever. It's too late to take it back, but I'd rather you'd just find something random to find somebody suspicious for, and then go with that.
FlashMarsh
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Tuesday, September 13 2011, 2:54 am EST

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Silver cannot kill.
Silver
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Tuesday, September 13 2011, 3:03 am EST

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Thanks for confirming that.
canadianstickdeath
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Tuesday, September 13 2011, 7:16 am EST

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'guyguyxtreme' said:
Silver cannot kill.
What the hell? We can't win this...

So, if I die, the town starts getting twice as many kills as us. Yeah, that's fair. If Jazz dies, then we can't kill at all... so gameover? And with all of that combined, what the hell is the point of the 50% failure on our roleblocking and silencer actions? We're not limited enough already? It's not like we'd actually ever choose to use those abilities.
canadianstickdeath
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Tuesday, September 13 2011, 7:05 pm EST

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"Hey Guyguy, why does it say 'under normal conditions it takes 7 votes to lynch'? Is there some special role you haven't told us about?"

If Silver claims beloved townie, and you die and flip scum, and somebody reads this, they might realize you knew something was up, and that's IF people don't accuse you of having inside information already today, lol.
canadianstickdeath
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Thursday, September 15 2011, 11:58 pm EST

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I have a theory that, as long as you're not obvious about it, Thomas is blind to being buddied (see: Thomith). So the goal for me will be to stay on his good side, while we throws out accusations toward everyone else. This plan... will not work, but w/e, lol.
canadianstickdeath
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Monday, September 19 2011, 3:31 am EST

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I've been thinking about our night actions, and I can't even think of a scenario where it would be beneficial for us to attempt to roleblock somebody. Because of the probabilities involved, the expected outcome is never better than if we were to just use both kills, and is often worse.


Example 1: Claimed cop.

Why would you send a 50% roleblock his way, when you can send a 50% kill instead?


Example 2: Claimed vigilante.

Kill fails: The person that the vigilante was suspicious of is lynched. If we were to actually decide to roleblock him instead of doing a guaranteed kill, it's probably one of us.
Roleblock fails: One of us is dead, and it's no different from if we had just gone with the guaranteed kill.
Both succeed: Yay. The person who the vigilante was suspicious of might end up being lynched.
Both fail: Yeah, that's just great.

Conclusion: If a vigilante is suspicious of one of us, that person will probably end up dead, one way or another. The chance of the "both fail" scenario makes it not worth it to attempt to save the other player.


Example 3: Claimed cop & Claimed Doctor

Let's say we block the cop and kill the doctor. The cop will have a 50% chance of getting one detection. Let's say we keep this up until the doctor dies. Each night, he gets another 50% chance until the 50% that the doctor dies goes through. That's a 50% + 25% + 12.5% ... etc chance. Anyway, to spare you some math, the expected number of detections that the cop will make works out to be 1, which is the same number that he will make if we take the kill straight to the doctor. When you work in the fact that, after each failed kill attempt, the town will have another chance to lynch us, you find out we're better of just outright killing the doctor.

The other option we have is to kill the cop and block the doctor, but this only has a 25% chance to work in our favour, while the remaining 75% is bad news. The expected night that this will succeed on is about night 2.5 (I know that's not a real night, so, night 2 or 3), which is worse than the night 2 that we can expect cop to die if we just outright kill both him and the doctor on consecutive nights (and this is before you work in that, after each failed attempt, the doctor is still alive and the town has another chance to lynch us). It's hard to imagine a situation where it would actually be worth the risk to attempt something like that.


Conclusion: The roleblocker is completely useless. Silencing is equally useless, but at least it would perform some sort of function other than decrease the odds of a favourable outcome. The only thing either of these abilities is any good for is if we eventually want to fake-claim having been blocked or silenced. The only ability we have is Silver's detection.

If either Jazz or myself dies, which I expect will happen sooner rather than later, then we're left with only kills every other night (or so) and almost no chance of victory. If both Jazz and myself die, Silver cannot win as we will have no way to kill. I don't really have any interest in playing a game where the outcome is already decided. I'd prefer to replace out, if I'm being honest. Any effort I put into this game would be halfhearted at best.
Silver
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Monday, September 19 2011, 4:40 am EST

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No matter what, we're just plain screwed?
canadianstickdeath
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Monday, September 19 2011, 5:14 am EST

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No matter what, we won't be using the roleblocker, lol.

We're not entirely screwed, but it'll take a lot of luck on our part, as well as avoiding suspicion. You should be OK (you're acting the same as last game, but your role of "beloved townie" will hopefully confirm you), but you won't win this game without both me and Jazz alive for as long as possible.
Isa
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Monday, September 19 2011, 9:35 am EST
No. I'm an octopus.

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Don't blame me, I didn't get to know that Silver would be unable to kill, and I advised against the 50% success rate...
canadianstickdeath
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Monday, September 19 2011, 9:49 am EST

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You're the staff here. Along with the ability to "advise", you had the ability to "enforce".
Isa
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Monday, September 19 2011, 10:19 am EST
No. I'm an octopus.

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Sorry bud, "enforce" only had 50% success rate.

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