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3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4.
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snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:22 pm EST
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What are you asking me:
a) Soccerboy's claim is reasonable or
b) My claim is reasonable
Either way, the answer is yes.
You're acting as though soccer could give evidence other than saying Thomas tried to kill him. What could that be?
That is also not the only reason I voted Thomas. I voted him yesterday, but wasn't sure. Then all this happens, and I vote him. Then he falseclaims. So, no, I'm not changing my vote.
There are probably a lot of points I missed talking about, so go right ahead. I know I can prove my alignment with ease, so I'm not that worried. If I get lynched, everyone will see I was telling the truth and it'll be child's play finding scum from there, so I'm also not that worried about losing. Attacking me was a pretty bad choice for the mafia.

NINJA'D:
Occum's Razor is only applicable when all other things are equal between two theories. What theories are you contrasting my claims to and what makes them otherwise equal?


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
Sefro
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:25 pm EST

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Vote Count
- 3.1

Votes:

3 - Thomas (jellsprout, Yaya, snipereborn)
2 - snipereborn (Isa, Thomas)

4 - Not Voting (soccerboy, Yuggy, Silver, Shavey Dave)

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
Deadline for the day phase: February 9, 2012, 11:59PM Interguild Time.


(Sniper, please remember to Unvote before you vote for someone else. Just helps me to keep track.)
snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:26 pm EST
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Sorry Dando.

Also, I thought I had more votes on me somewhere...


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:34 pm EST
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Ah no I'm wrong. How could I have doubted dand?
Jell just has an imaginary fos on me.


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:35 pm EST
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'snipereborn' said:
What are you asking me:
a) Soccerboy's claim is reasonable or
b) My claim is reasonable
Either way, the answer is yes.

Why? What leads you to believe that a Serial Killer has refused to kill two nights in a row, when you could simply assume that...drumroll...there IS not Serial Killer, or other third party role?
'snipereborn' said:

You're acting as though soccer could give evidence other than saying Thomas tried to kill him. What could that be?

If he was One-Shot Bulletproof and got notified that he is no longer Bulletproof, because his ability was used up in the night? That'd be something for us. Another thing would be, you know, a second night kill.

I am contrasting your theories, in order, with my theory that Silver IS the role that she has claimed and that Thomas and Silver are NOT aligned together, contrary to your belief that they are aligned together and forced one of them to claim a role in order to look more town, despite the fact that any night action targeted at Silver would be outing her as scum if she was fakeclaiming. I am also contrasting your theory that there is a third party role in the game who has a killing role but hasn't used it successfully over the course of two nights to the theory that there is no third party role.
What makes these theories that you propose more believable than mine? Occam's Razor states that we should go with mine, I believe.  
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:37 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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snipereborn is scum because he is saying things like "it'll be child's play finding scum from there" instead of actaully trying to prove he's town in the unlikely event that he is.

Hey does anybody think Yaya is scum? He's not playing like he usually does when he's pro-town.
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:39 pm EST
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'Thomas' said:
Hey does anybody think Yaya is scum? He's not playing like he usually does when he's pro-town.


How so? Not seeing the case from here.

Also, you're not playing the same as you've done earlier on here when you were aligned with the town, but I am supposed to believe that you are town if I ask you about it, right?
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:40 pm EST
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Actually, uuuuh...

Yaya didn't enter game #3,5.
Yaya was the Serial Killer in #3.
Yaya died N1 in #2.
In #1, Yaya was town and lived until the end, but I don't think it's fair to compare how he played a year ago with how he plays now.
snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:42 pm EST
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Then you've never been taught the definition of Occum's Razor, or else have forgot it.
You only choose the theories with less entities if the two theories are equally likely to be correct.

Example: Occums Razor is applied.
I come home and discover my stove is on.
Theory one: I left the stove on.
Theory two: Someone broke into my house so that they could turn my stove on.
If we pretend that these are equally likely, the first is still the best choice because it has fewer entities.
Example Occum's Razor isn't applied.
There are two theories as to how the universe is fundamentally structured.
Theory one: Quantum physics
Theory two: String theory.
Theory one is preferable to theory two because it explains more.

My theories are preferable to yours because they explain more observed interactions, rather than falling back to "I don't know what's going on"
I have to log out now. My laptop's batter is about to die.


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:43 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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I have had a null read on Yaya all game.

I have been aligned with the town in every game on the Interguild thus far and apparently even in some other games I have played differently so I guess this game is no exception to that.
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:47 pm EST
No. I'm an octopus.

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'snipereborn' said:
Then you've never been taught the definition of Occum's Razor, or else have forgot it.
You only choose the theories with less entities if the two theories are equally likely to be correct.

I don't see how your theory is more likely to be correct. The first one about Thomas-Silver explains more but is absolutely more far-fetched, and the second one...overcomplicates matters, simply put.

Let's stop arguing about semantics and pressure you with actual questions of importance. What makes it likely that there's a Serial Killer in the setup, and what makes it more likely than a setup without a Serial Killer? Answer this. You've avoided the question for quite some time now and I want a straight answer.

(I also want more votes on Sniper, people)
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:47 pm EST
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'Thomas' said:
I have had a null read on Yaya all game.

I have been aligned with the town in every game on the Interguild thus far and apparently even in some other games I have played differently so I guess this game is no exception to that.


I am truly convinced by your case!
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:49 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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Thanks. Do you think Yaya is town or something? Definitely not. Harumbai is MVP.
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:50 pm EST
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I've stated so already, but yes I do believe that Yaya is town. You seem to have a hard time finding things scummy with him as well.

Drop that and help me pressure Snipereborn, would you please?
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 7:54 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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Well what do you think of his "we are soo gonna lose the game if you lynch me?" It's not really WIFOM but AtE? I can't really describe it but it's the kind of thing I see from newb scum. Or are you thinking he's indie?

SINPEREBORN YOU ARE OBSCUM AND TO BE DESTROYED.
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:00 pm EST
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First, he said the complete opposite, that if he was lynched town should have a field day to find scum.
Second, I do agree that "Do this when I am lynched" is scummy. Note how you've done the same thing in the past and how you've been lynched every time you said so...

I do not think he's an independent. He is probably aligned with Shavey Dave, I don't remember any push from anyone of those towards the other. The third member of the party is slightly trickier if it isn't you. May or may not be Yuggy.

We shouldn't really look for teams either way before we've actually had a scum flip, or when we're at LyLo - and even then, not as much as we should simply look at finding scum.

Anyway, new question for Sniper:
Would you be willing to vote for someone else? If Thomas is telling the truth, he is bound to die tonight. Doctors can't protect themselves in properly modded games (which I believe this to be). If Thomas lives by tomorrow and we have a successful night kill, we can lynch him. Deal?
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:11 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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Yeah, Shavey Dave... why was he not lynched yesterday? He's not even pro-town.

Anyway I just find that scum tend to attack your attack instead of defend. Like in the last game, on D3, shos said something like "your accusations are full of randomness" and doesn't even explain why. Snipereborn is just throwing out crap instead of proving he is town which is what you do to not get lynched. (I am now professional at not getting lynched.)
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:17 pm EST
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So professional you saw the need to claim. >_>

Anyway, that is a good point. I agree that Sniper's defense of himself has been subpar, developing into other subjects and therefore avoiding the real issue ("That's not Occam's Razor" instead of motivating why his theory is more plausible than mine). Add that to the list of points against him.
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:19 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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Hey is that called chainsaw defense?
snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:24 pm EST
Fact Squisher

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'Thomas' said:
snipereborn is scum because he is saying things like "it'll be child's play finding scum from there" instead of actaully trying to prove he's town in the unlikely event that he is

This is full of nonsense. The only way to prove yourself town is by roleclaiming and then backing it up. I'm not going to roleclaim when there are only two votes on me and one is OMGUS from an obvscum.


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
Isa
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:25 pm EST
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No, chainsaw defense is when we have a scumteam consisting of players X and Y. Player A attacks player X, player Y then furiously charges at player A.

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Chainsaw_Defense#Chainsaw_Defense_.28Tarhalindur_Version.29

His updated version doesn't apply to us, because our metagame isn't as developed, I think.

PEdit: One proves himself town by acting like town. Pretty much how Harumbai had proved himself as town - it wasn't outspoken, but I dare to say that nobody had a scumread on him.
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:30 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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CONTRADICTION: You seem to think that claiming makes for confirmed town but then I claimed and you are calling me "obvscum." RESPOND TO THIS NOW.

Also, I think I soft claimed somewhere yesterday. I think it was in the post where I requested a deadline extension. Isa, about Harumbai, do you think he made any breadcrumbs? I don't see any at all.
snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:32 pm EST
Fact Squisher

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Isa, read what I posted. I explained why my theories are better. They explain more and are not really that far fetched.
As for Thomas, fine. I'm going to vote for myself, so that brings me back to silver. The other option is shavey.

NINJA'd: Define acting like town. If I don't defend myself, you say I'm obvscum for not defending myself. Catch-22 much?

NINJA'd again: That isn't what I said. I said claiming + Backing it up. You didn't do the second, indeed, you can't. Except by dying and flipping doctor.


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
snipereborn
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:32 pm EST
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EBWOP: I'm not going to vote myself, that is


Everyone runs faster with a knife.
Thomas
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Thursday, February 2 2012, 8:33 pm EST
the clique shall prevail

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Look at Harumbai's play in this game or Yaya's play a few games ago when he was the indie if you wanna see some pro-town play.

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