I am pretty mad at all of you, but I have an oral exam in half an hour. I will explain when I return.

Back.

What the hell people? What the hell? Why on Earth did you lynch Kooler? There was nothing, absolutely nothing scummy either he or CSD did. Short of Harumbai (who, to be fair, I expected to be a double voter at the time) and Yaya there was nobody in this game I suspected less of being scum. Not only did you lynch someone who you had absolutely no reason to lynch, you rushed the lynch in at the very last minute when it was too late for either Isa or me to respond. At the time of Isa's last post there were no votes for Kooler, while at the time of my last post Kooler had only 2 votes, meaning there were two more likely candidates to get lynched. The scum pushed this bandwagon through without giving either of us a chance to stop it.

And Isa, you played extremely poorly at the end of the previous day. Under no, and I really mean absolutely no circumstances should you post like that. Remember that Thomas, despite making some accurate predictions, was still lynched in previous games because of his atrocious playstyle? Then why the hell are you imitating him? Do you want to lose all credibility you once had? Do you want more Kooler lynches? Then stop playing like a donkey's ass.

To be entirely fair, I was also wrong yesterday. It is now clear to me that our Mafia team isn't Thomas/Silver/Yuggy. This is impossible, since Sniper is scum. I already started to suspect him at the end of the previous day when he kept stirring up trouble, without voting for anyone. Now that absolutely ridiculous bandwagon has played out, there is no doubt left. When people are suspicious and he is one of the more adamant attackers, he refuses to vote, yet when there is someone who is not scummy at all, he doesn't hesitate. Sniper is scum and must be lynched.
My suspicions for Thomas has only grown since yesterday. Isn't it a bit suspicious how he gave the crucial third vote? Isn't it even more suspicious that he didn't vote directly after Kooler was suggested, but he did vote directly after I made it clear I wasn't going to post anymore and wouldn't be able to stop the bandwagon. Thomas is scum and must be lynched.
As for our third, I am not entirely sure. It could be Silver, Yaya or Shavey Dave.
I don't think it was Soccerboy. He was the first to vote for Kooler when there was no indication so many people would jump on the bandwagon. He is also the only person who seems sincere in his motivation to lynch Kooler.
I don't Yuggy is scum either. Aside from Isa, Kooler and me he was the only one to not jump on the bandwagon. This could be because he didn't have the time for it, but at the moment I think it is safe to assume all scum were riding the Kooler bandwagon.
I seriously doubt Isa is scum. He clearly wasn't part of the bandwagon, but even more it was clear the scum was trying to avoid him. His Thomas imitation post of the end of the previous day was also clearly out of frustration for everybody playing so terrible, just like me last post of the previous day. It was still an idiot move for him, but understandable.
For who it is, I currently suspect Yaya the most and Silver the least. Claiming nobody targeted her is too risky a move for Silver that could easily backfire. The Mafia wouldn't dare such a gamble. While Yaya's vote for Kooler came at a very, very convenient time. Shavey's been annoying the hell out of me with his refusal to vote, but I suppose his annoyance at everyone accusing him of bandwagoning could be sincere.

Vote: Snipereborn
Two of our scum are Sniper and Thomas. I am certain of this. Lynch them or lose, the choice is up to you.

It is pretty damn obvious that Harumbai investigated you on N2. The only other plausible target aside from you was Silver and for now I choose to believe nobody targeted her. You certainly seem to believe so. I'm going to try and find out who she did target on N1, but I am certain it wasn't you.

Oh hey, look who's talking...insulting me isn't going to make it likely for me to listen, and you're talking about one post. It wasn't even my last in the game that day.
Also it was 03:00 AM when I made that post. Go figure.

You were pretty damn scummy yourself by pushing the Silver wagon, responding to my post why we shouldn't lynch her without actually combating my points. And all of a sudden, your reads have flipped 180 degrees...?

My main scum reads are Thomas, Snipereborn, Shavey Dave and Jellsprout. I find it unlikely that Jellsprout and Snipereborn are aligned together though due to Jellsprout's attack on Sniper - there has been no momentum towards Sniper, so no need to kill your own. Thomas could still be aligned with Jellsprout despite his recent vote because he wants to distance himself from his partner if he think he's going down (but also, I doubt he'll keep that vote for long).
Snipereborn is a good vote because he wants to lynch Silver, but Thomas is an even better one.

Vote: Thomas
Everything he has done since he forced Silver to roleclaim has been scummy.

However, this doesn't mean I won't put some pressure on Snipereborn.
What is your case on Silver? What has she does that makes you so damned sure she is scum? "Same reasons as yesterday" doesn't really cut it for me, because I didn't see a case yesterday either. If it is your theory that Silver or a buddy janitor-killed Shos and got Silver to claim his role to be confirmed town...you're in trouble, because that theory fails desperately on the fact that Silver has to guess if someone targeted her on two nights in a row, and she has to do it correctly. That's 8/6 persons to predict correctly.
In fact, I am pretty sure that if Silver was Mafia, she'd have claimed to have a buddy target her during the night in order to protect herself.

Now, Snipereborn and Jellsprout, show me that you truly are not aligned with Thomas by shifting your vote to him. Silver, you're suspicious of Thomas as well since yesterday - vote him. Yuggy, you seem to question Thomas motives (which you should) - vote him.

Isa, you have to admit that post was pretty stupid. It wasn't just the attack, it were the caps and everything. And I explained my switch from Thomas to Silver. Thomas wasn't going to get lynched. It was close to the deadline and Thomas was losing votes. It was clear at that people simply weren't willing to vote Thomas. So I switched to Silver, who I also suspected to be Mafia at the time.
Unvote
Vote: Thomas

As I explained in my previous post, I am just as sure Thomas is Mafia as I'm sure Sniper is Mafia. I don't really care which of the two gets lynched, as long as the other gets lynched the next day.

I also looked through Harumbai's posts on the previous day. The third Mafia is either Yuggy or Soccerboy.



Harumbai clearly states that he suspected Soccerboy the most. It would seem obvious to me that Harumbai would investigate the most suspicious person. The next day Harumbai can't really explain his suspicions, but he still suspects Soccerboy the most of anyone.

But at the end of the day Harumbai made posts like these:


Harumbai was quite eager at the time to get Yuggy lynched. He tried to blame it on inactivity and accusing Soccerboy, Kooler and Shavey in the same breath, but still tries very hard to get Yuggy lynched. I think Harumbai tried to avoid becoming a target while still trying to get the scum lynched.

Now, Harumbai might just as well have investigated someone else. In my opinion the only other likely targets were Silver, Thomas, Isa and myself.

Harumbai was suspicious of both Thomas and Silver during the majority of the day, even voting for both at one point, but by the end of the day he seemed convinced both were Town. So this shows neither of them were Harumbai's target.
At one point Harumbai hinted that Isa could be Mafia, yet fully supported Isa later in the day. So I doubt Harumbai investigated Isa.
Harumbai hinted that I could be Mafia in the same post he hinted Isa could be Mafia, but Harumbai pretty much ignored me for the entire day. I know my case is the weakest and I know that simply saying "I'm Town" like Thomas does isn't going to help, so I hope you will either just trust me on this or look at Harumbai's posts yourself to come to a conclusion.

I myself suspect Yuggy the most. The rallying at the end of the day to get Yuggy lynched just seems too much to be coincidental.

Something I forgot in my last post to support a Thomas/Sniper/Soccerboy team.

http://www.interguild.org/members/forums/jump.php?to=1327387532


The moment Thomas gets close to a lynch, Sniper immediately removes his vote and won't for him again at the end of the day, even though he said he still suspected Thomas. But even more scummy is that first line. "Soccer, you should have said something." Why should Soccerboy have said something? Why do you make such a big deal out of it despite both you and Soccerboy having a vote on Thomas, and thus consider him scum? Why specifically Soccerboy? Why shouldn't Harumbai have said something?

The points weren't stupid but the formatting could have been better. Moving on.

I believe that Harumbai investigated Shos with a side possibility of Snipereborn or Yaya, actually - if he wasn't roleblocked or otherwise hindered to use his role. If he had gotten a guilty on Yuggy or Soccerboy, he should have stated it openly. Even if he decided that wasn't the best thing at the start of the day, at least by the end of the day he'd have revealed what he got instead of compromising with a Kooler lynch. I am pretty sure he didn't get a Guilty report on anyone due to that.

I believe that he investigated Shos (or got roleblocked) because everyone he states as town, he is suspicious towards at some point as well. The only players I cannot remember that he suspected at one point or the other during the day are Snipereborn and Yaya. Out of those, I have a pretty stable townread on Yaya and a scumread on Snipereborn so I think it's more likely he investigated Yaya in that case, but I think that it's more likely that he simply investigated Shos because if he had investigated anyone alive, he'd leave a better trail...or at least, I hope so.

In my opinion, he clearly did not investigate the following:
Kooler
Yuggy
Soccerboy
Isa
Jellsprout
Thomas
Silver
Shavey Dave (he was suspicious of Shavey Dave at multiple times)
Harumbai (obviously, but added for sake of completion)

And this only leaves the following:
Yaya
Snipereborn
Shos

If he investigated Yaya or Snipereborn, he had a Town report on them, but he doesn't hint at it anywhere in his posts. Shos was a very plausible target for investigation N1, and it'd explain the lack of a proper report, so I think he was the investigated one N1.

I considered Shos being investigated. But I think if that were the case, there would have been a bigger change in Harumbai's opinion of Silver. Harumbai would know if Silver fake-claimed Shos's role or not. I don't see a big enough change to think this is true.

Harumbai never protected Soccerboy or Yuggy either. In fact, every time Harumbai mentioned or addressed Soccerboy he was hostile and every time he mentioned Yuggy except for once he appeared to be probing for a lynch.

You don't think there was a huge shift? He went from voting her to saying that she was town the entire day after her claim.

Harumbai indirectly protected Soccerboy and Yuggy by not claiming a guilty when we only had a few days until deadline, and instead of saying "Guys, vote Yuggy because I got a guilty on him", he said "Fine, let's kill Kooler". That doesn't make any sense at all.

Also this points speaks heavily against a Guilty on Yuggy: http://www.interguild.org/members/forums/jump.php?to=1327282959
(I found it by accident because it's on the same page as Silver's claim. May or may not be ones against Soccerboy as well, didn't check.)

Here he says he would also vote for Yuggy. I think at this point he wants to try and fly under the radar. The fact that he puts such a weight on the Yuggy vote suggests to me that it was important to him.
Harumbai's push for a Yuggy lynch at the end of D2 suggests to me he knew more about Yuggy than we.



Before, actually. Right before Silver claimed Harumbai already heavily shifted opinion. It is not as if Harumbai was debating the fake claim theory either.

EBWOP
I don't mean that Yuggy at that moment was obviously Harumbai's first choice, but rather that Harumbai could agree with a Yuggy lynch. I think he was probing there for general opinion.

You are certain? You are either a fool or mafia. I believe the former.
Unfortunately, you've misread me jell. This I can prove, so maybe you shouldn't waste time?
Proving this requires a rc on my part, which I'm not doing unless everyone absolutely decides that your ridiculous argument is valid.
Lynching inactives is better than no lynch. That's why I voted kooler. The other option was do nothing. Would you like the town to do nothing, jell? Maybe the mafia will be nice and not kill all of us. You never know.
Also, you have a pretty low opinion of the mafia if you think they'd all give themselves away that easily. There's a mountain of evidence and you focus on one fact that may or may not mean anything? What's wrong with you?

I take it back. I read mafia on jell, not stupid.

Clearly, I was talking to soccer specifically because he put thomas at l-1. Maybe you should read in context?
I didn't really make that big a deal out of it. I also explained why I did it in the quote. Why ask me something that you answered yourself?

@Isa
Learn to read.
You even quoted this once.

Based on that post, you want to lynch Silver because she's less valuable to town than Thomas if she is town. That's it?

Please, treat me like I am five years old and go over the case on Silver point by point.  

I went over your posts after Silver roleclaimed (I am not sure if you had any anti-Silver tendencies prior to that) and besides the link you gave me, the only posts I could find where you argue for Silver-scum are these:
http://www.interguild.org/members/forums/jump.php?to=1327719598
http://www.interguild.org/members/forums/jump.php?to=1327728694

Just now I replied
Is there anything more? In the two links I provided in this post, you're saying that we shouldn't trust her claim (why?) and that the Janitor-theory is good, which I disagree with heavily.

Fine.
D1:
Silver behaves extremely erratically.
Silver doesn't contribute meaningfully.
D2:
Silver continues to not contribute.
Silver roleclaims for no real reason.
[Inert janitor kill theory]
Silver is very inactive.
At the end of D2, Silver still has not contributed anything of any value.

I voted Kooler for not being active. When Silver is being active, she's not saying anything. I wanted a Silver lynch instead of a Kooler lynch yesterday, but you said that was a bad idea. So I said fine, we'll lynch someone else who isn't helping.

"All right everyone. No lynch. Mafia gets a new kill while we end the day without any new information. Well played. Good night, I'll see everyone in the morning. Or the Graveyard, who knows. " -- Jellsprout

It's not our fault you decided to give up before the day was over. And you do know that you wouldn't go to the graveyard.
I'm actually not sure if Thomas is scum anymore. A Jellsprout, Thomas, Silver mafia sits wrong in my intuition.

So you think that the scummiest person in this game, over three days and 32 pages, is a lurker who has claimed a role that proves itself over time? Lurking is anti-town, indeed, but it's more of a personality tell than alignment tell. If you look at Mafia Game 3,5 (the previous one) you'll find that Silver was town there as well and behaved just like this. I agree with you that she has played poorly, but I do not think that her poor play indicates that she is scum.

Indeed, I'm actually switching to
Vote: Jellsprout
For deliberately misleading people and anti-town play.
Why would a townie settle for a no lynch? We're not in lylo yet, so a no lynch is only helpful to the mafia.

Why should we care if you "didn't get a chance to stop it"? You'd made it clear you wouldn't be doing anything anymore, so you forfeited the right to say such things. Isa has a legitimate claim; you do not.
Also "had absolutely no reason to lynch". Apparently we did. There are three mafia. Even if all of them voted kooler (which I doubt because that's too easy to spot), that means at least three townies/indies had reason to vote for him, the main one being inactivity, which is a valid reason for a policy lynch.

Man these are the days that I wish I skipped school and stayed home to keep up with the game. I'm gonna avoid voting anybody for now, because I think I have to reread all the posts and look at it all again.

YUGGY/SHAVEY/SOCCERBOY/! POST MORE! You guys have made either 1 or no posts since the day has started. I can understand Silver because she hasn't been for 12 hours (maybe she's just hiding), and even though Soccerboy hasn't either, it still bugs me that he didn't respond to Thomas pointlessly voting him. You all are not making this any easier by not posting here when you're on. If we want to actually lynch a mafioso this week, we need as many active players as possible, since they are still presumably at full force (1/3 of players will do all they can to mess us up).

I'm going to say that the probable mafia is Thomas, someone else, and either Yuggy or Snipereborn.

Isa, Jellsprout and Thomas have all had their flaws. Isa acted borderline trollish D2 against Thomas, and played similar to the style Thomas was known for. And similar what to Jell said, Thomas was even worse in past games than this one, and he was still town. So if you're town, Isa (I think you are), you should probably stop. I haven't noticed anything too scummy about Jell so far. Either that's because the chance of him slipping is pretty small since he's town, or he's just been extremely careful (I'd definitely say town for now). Also Jell, I don't see my vote on Kooler being "convenient". I'll admit I joined the Kooler wagon in the middle-ish, but I simply transferred my case earlier on him from there. At that point, I was willing to change my vote to any of the 2-3 scum-henchmen candidates if there was a chance they'd actually get lynched. I kinda got caught up in the moment, cuz if we lynched another townie (we did), we'd probably lose somebody important (we did).

I don't see any reason why that should be used as evidence. That's almost gambler's fallacy if it wasn't partially true. Older/experienced, not staff members are usually picked to be head of the mafia. I think that category just happens to include a majority of the staff playing mafia. I can see Dando absolutely having no issue of assigning you as the head. You're in the tier of older players, and you've certainly had you're experience playing and being mafia (you love to talk about that game where you and Isa were together). It's not like she'd put Kooler as head, but I'm not restricting the head to staff. Not to mention that you randmomassly voted SB on the last page without evidence. Maybe I'd give you more credit if the person had done anything suspicious recently, but it was kinda out of the blue (SB's in no way free of suspicion, though). Or was it based on your elusive soccerboy theory from D1?

Yuggy, for the same reasons that were being thrown at you D2, since you've decided not to post D3. I can't really skewer you entirely based on inactivity, so I'm putting down Snipereborn as a substitute (both of them could be, but I'm not seeing it). Almost all the players have let you cruise, and that has partly only been based on the fact that you wrote narratives the 1st few times. Wiithout those, you'd just seem like a bland townie, who can easily just be mafia who's good at pretending.

I have no clear idea who the other mafioso could be for now, might be SB or Shavey. If I was to vote for anybody, it'd be Thomas (I'm gonna try to get a clearer picture tonight if I finish my homework early enough).

A Town lynch is better than no lynch? I am confused, I thought we were supposed to keep Townies alive? We are past early-game Sniper. If the person isn't scummy, then there is no reason to lynch them.
Also, you are correct. There is a mountain of evidence. Against you, to be precise. And I've already told about this mountain. The crucial third vote, damning a Townie. The sudden unvote on Thomas and the absolute refusal to vote for him again at the end of the day, despite claiming he was still the scummiest person in the game. You are by far the scummiest person in the game so far.

Now, you apparently still believe the Janitor/Claim theory. Tell me then, who do you think Harumbai targeted in N1?

And all roles are decided randomly.

Care to back this up with more than one quoted post?

Anyway - you should absolutely put your vote down on Thomas.
Thomas has forced a roleclaim unneededly out of Silver.
He has flailed around voting for lurkers instead of actively scumhunting. Multiple times.
In fact, since I started to pressure him, he has been very loose with his votes, shifting his vote to anyone for any given reason.
He has contradicted himself frequently, as I showed here.
He has even been trying to create suspicions for the most absurd reasons early in D2, pretty much this entire page and then some.

Furthermore, voting is town's main weapon of winning. If you don't put your vote to use, you'll never lynch anyone.