So a few things I wanted to highlight quickly:



I agree with this sentiment to a degree. All posts should be led with the intention of ascertaining who is scum, but as town, it is still in your self-interest to stay alive. That being said, Kro outweighed his post highly on the side of protecting himself, and I agree with you that it was him protecting himself rather than trying to provide justification. ex:



It's not like I'm mafia, as I don't know he's town!



In your post, you completely voided atvelonis' post by saying that it was a regurgitation of what others had already said, but the problem is that at this point in time, you hadn't answered the question. Sometimes it is important to reiterate something that should be cleared up, granted not all the time.

As for the claim, under normal circumstances, it would be "obvious" as you stated. But you put that claim under fire, which is why it needed to be said. Up until your post, Isa's character had only been questioned by Yimmy and had been assumed town by nearly everyone else.



The question to ask here is: which of the outcomes is most probable?

I have to go soon but I wanted to briefly highlight these two points:





These two points exhibit Kro's scummiest behaviors. Incredibly over defensive, even at the start where there was NO ONE suspicious of him. Then I believe his second major mistake is calling HB paranoid as part of the basis of his claim, while also stating that he believed 6/9 people on Day 1 to be scum. Will post more on this later.

Also, sorry about the formatting. Just realizing now that quotes add an extra linebreak already.

Okay I'm here now, sorry for not being on.

re: Kro. I, of course, can point out how you have mentioned your suspicion of me and Jory in every single one of your posts so far, but let's not get into that. I find your argument about me being the "strongest supporter of lynching rocketguy" to be pretty weak in that I could just as easily argue that I honestly believed that RG2 was scum. In hindsight I'd say that my biggest mistake was overestimating the sophistication of his strategy; I'd thought he was mafia pretending to be a clueless townie, but really he turned out to be an indifferent (and inexperienced) player. We should probably also keep in mind that a lot of other players are inexperienced as well.


Currently having flashbacks to high school english classes. Sometimes I use words because they sound nice ~rhetorically~ so a close analysis of my diction may not actually result in an accurate picture of my mood at the time of writing. Plus there's also the factor of being behind the giant concrete wall known as the Internet.

Since the recent discourse seems to be stuck on krotomo right now and since everyone else has already said what i want to say, I'll just throw out a wild theory: Kro and Jory are scum and that's why jory is so willing to say that he will chew a sock because he already knows that kro is scum. And Kro is distancing himself from jory by naming him as scum no. 2 and voting for me cuz he can't risk his partner getting lynched. of course this theory kinda falls apart if you analyze Kro and Jory's behaviour towards each other (which has been actively and consistently hostile) and remember that Jory actually voted for Kro. but then you can also say that voting for Kro is actually safe in that I doubt anyone wants a repeat of last day (I mean I'm reluctant to bring Kro to L-1 because I'm afraid of another irresponsible hammer) but we're kinda getting into WIFOM territory here.

man i have a lot of trouble getting any reads off oo anyone (besides kro) through this krotomo discussion

i would like mymop and atvelonis to more clearly take a stance as they have been sharing thoughts, but haven't stated if this convinces them kro is scum or not. (like atvelonis where he makes a big ol post about whether kro would act defensive and then doesn't draw any conclusion)
im pretty convinced mymop is town though because he's very openly searching for scum and ideas to find scum

Someone (I think it was Jorster) mentioned earlier that throwing your scum buddy under the bus is an effective way of distancing yourself from them. Based on that, I a scum team of Kro+Jorster or Kro+HB is not out of the question, but they both seem unlikely due to how much insightful stuff both HB and Jorster have contributed.

About Kro:
Kro never seemed to me like the kind of person who makes serious mistakes, at least not very often. So I think it could be significant to see how much of a mistake his decision to lynch RG would be.

If Kro is town, then if he thought RG was suspicious his vote for RG doesn't seem like it would have been a huge mistake, since most of us already thought RG was scum. However, since he said that HB and Jorster were the most likely to be scum it makes no sense for him to have voted for RG unless he is scum. The only possible justification I can think of for this would be Kro's inexperience; however, HB and I have, just like Kro, never participated in Mafia on the IG before, and we seem to be doing fine, so inexperience seems like a weak excuse to me.
Also worth pointing out is that if he is scum, then voting to lynch RG might also be a mistake due to the amount of suspicion it would put Kro under.


All in all, I think Kro is most likely scum. However, since I thought the same of RG and he turned out to be town, I'm not eager to cast my vote.  

I don't really have any original thoughts to add right now. I think Kro's hammer was really scummy and I didn't find his later responses totally satisfactory either. I originally believed Isa's miller claim, but Kro's posts are both more recent and lengthier/more informative than that, so I would be inclined to say that he's scum.

Prodding Kro.

What's important to note is that right now kro's scum buddy is coasting under the radar, and while we wait for him to make a response, we should be looking for them. It's sitting weirdly with me that some of you are satisfied with just letting kro take all the heat without continuing to look, namely you Soccerboy. Why haven't you been putting pressure on anyone else during this debacle? How about the rest of you? Where's your pro town behaviour, guys?

I know this is hypocritical coming from me, but didn't soccerboy just explain why trying to find the whole scum team at once is a bad idea? Why are you continuing with this approach, when it has clearly proven to be faulty?


Also @mymop, while you and HB didn't make any major mistakes in your first few posts, you also weren't in a position where that was even possible.

Because the conversation is currently centered on you and the general consensus seems to agree with you being the scummiest person at the moment, to the point where MANY people seem to have temporarily forgotten that there are two scum. I wanted to find a way to ease out of the Krotomo discussion without suddenly throwing out a random accusation (which would be the best that I could do, because, given recent circumstances, it has become extremely difficult to detect scummy behaviour).

Also, could you explain what you mean by "being in a position where [making major mistakes] was even possible"?

I find this strange... IIRC, I'm the only one at present who is reading Kro as more town leaning than scum leaning on the basis of Isa's claim. The way I see it, if Kro is town and simply made a dumb mistake, then the mafia could push for a Kro lynch incredibly easily, likely putting us into a MyLo situation. With the current state of reads having gotten no better since early Day 1, I don't see this as a good situation.

I share a similar sentiment with yimmy in the regard that it is incredibly difficult to make any legitimate reads based on the Kro discussion alone, but it is further exacerbated by Kro's inactivity. If he continues to stay inactive while under pressure, I'm not sure how the game will progress. I think it is vital to keep looking for scum, but I don't necessarily think that we will find them in connection with Kro, or at least under the way that you say as "Kro's scum buddy". I'm a proponent of simply trying to ascertain Kro's alignment right now. With the power of numbers, this will help lead us to an easier time sorting through the nebulous scum-hunting mess we're in right now. The Miller is intended to weaken the cop, but I think we can best utilize this to our advantage.

One other note to make about Kro. I think he literally just pulled his original argument straight from here.


This almost exactly fits with his first post.


I think he read this and called it a day. What this means for me is that Kro likely just made a mistake. I still think the original Isa claim of Miller is intact. However, after such an outrageous turn of events, no one is going to want to protect Kro/put themselves at risk. I'm willing to put myself in the spotlight because if Kro gets lynched and turns up town, the game is lost in my opinion, at least with the current state of general inactivity.

In sum (although I hope you read all of this), I think Kro is town. I think he made a mistake, albeit large, that can be seen to be made mostly because of his newness. I think because of the severity of the mistake, he becomes the easiest target, one which scum can go after without much fear of reprisal.

Jory, what this says about you, I'm not sure. You were quick to vote Kro, and as such, my suspicions lead towards you, in part because I would think that you would follow the same logic that I have presented towards Kro not actually being that stupid to do that as mafia, and as such, come to a similar conclusion as me, but this still brings me to a WIFOM moment. This is not meant to be in retaliation of you singling me out, as I have been working on this theory and had it in writing since my previous post (in which I said I was following up later). Rather, I think you've been leading the pack in some sense, in due part to simply feeding off the newbies' play. I originally was suspicious of you for coasting along, flying under the radar, and it's interesting that now you come forth with the same question, without providing insight of your own.

In my view, it is rather hypocritical of you to say this while also being the main proponent against Kro. I am curious as to your thoughts, and whether they have changed since it has been quite some time since your original read list.

These questions I would like to ask mostly to you, Jory, but they are open to all to answer, as I think they are necessary for progressing:

Mymop was considered by many to be the most likely scum target; to those who previously voted for him, do you still view him to be leaning scum?

What else is scummy about Kro other than his egregious error? Is this enough to go off of? How is this similar/different to previous thoughts on Isa's claim?

How does the advent of RG and Dar turning up as town play into our new odds? With what I had previously referred to as the inactive camp: 2 of them turned up as Vanilla Townies.  

Apparently I forgot to mention this, but before Isa left he kept accusing me of being scum even after my best attempts at justifying myself, and he made sure to mention being suspicious of me but did not provide a reason why. Here are the relevant parts of the post in question (on page 4 or 5, I'm too lazy to check):

Sure, this is only one post, but it still makes me suspicious about Isa. And since Kro is Isa's replacement, this is one more reason for suspecting Kro.


RG and Darvince (as well as me and atvelonis, to a lesser extent) were all suspected simply due to inactivity. Naturally, since RG and Darvince turned out to be town their chief opponents might look suspicious, but since there are only two scum players and at least three people (HB, Jorster, and you) suspected them because of inactivity, their accusers cannot all have been scum. That being said, I think it's important to recognize now that inactivity alone is definitely not a reasonable justification for suspicion.  

VOTECOUNT OF THE DAY

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day ends in: March 13, 4:00 a.m. INTERGUILD TIME.

Krotomo (2) - Jorster, Yimmy
aych bee (1) - Krotomo

NOT VOTING:
aych bee, mymop, atvelonis, Soccerboy




...prodding Yimmy.
  

@aych bee, what I mean is that there were no in-game actions you two could have taken that would have had consequences beyond just a suspicious post. Mymop, of course, did make some cryptic posts, but those were quickly just deemed as being a result of his noobness, and mostly forgotten about.

what?

that includes you kthx

do you think people's reads haven't changed at all, or...? because if that is what you think then it's definitely incorrect

i wouldnt think it likely that that'd be the first wiki he'd see, but if he could confirm/deny that he saw this page before making that post, that'd be great

read my posts

yes

while i do think claiming miller would backfire as scum, it took a couple days of thinking about it to realize that so i wouldn't put it beyond Isa to miss that (and even then cops are a super common role so the chance of it backfiring is small)
all this to say I still think it's not alignment indicative

assuming random lynches the odds are around a 23% chance of winning
jokes aside i really can't see how it'd affect much of anything

i agree with mymop on isa


the thing about inactivity is it gives no reason to townread. if inactivity alone is all we have to go off, i do think a lynch is the right decision because if we treat it as null then scum could just sit back and be inactive giving us no content with which to scumread them. (if a member of the town is as inactive as those two were, especially when pressed, it's incredibly anti-town, too)

@kro yeah cool but why does that matter? they could make mistakes in their later posts

He's implying that he's being somewhat unevenly targeted over other players because the setup of the game thus far hasn't really given them an opportunity to do something audacious like a hammer. And he's just refuting Mymop's point, not really claiming something out of the blue? He doesn't seem to be claiming that they're incapable of making mistakes, just implying that if they were in his position it's not impossible that they would do something similar, I suppose.

I'm actually kind of getting the impression that Kro was slightly pressured (perhaps subconsciously) to do something big because he was both stepping in for Isa, an experienced player, and had not posted for a while even after Isa stepped out. All eyes were on him at the time, and that may have influenced his decision to do something bold a little bit. So I think I see how one could argue that it was an honest mistake stemming from that, not so much malice. To be honest I could probably sway either direction here though.

@yimmy. No, I didn't read the page soccer linked before I made my first comment; just the rules, roles, and previous posts in this thread. I don't remember encountering that wiki at all, only the one that shos linked.

This is Isa's style, as evidenced by previous games on here. These two posts, in particular, come to mind: 1 and 2.



In the past, this has been his playstyle: gather a bunch of thoughts and collect reads, then drop them all later. Now, unfortunately, we do not have the chance to gather what he collected from peoples' responses. This was in large part, my original reasoning for suspecting Jory on Day 1, at least until Isa clarified his intentions.


No, I am aware that they have changed. I am referring to the quality, which in my opinion has been degraded by the overall inactivity. I rarely ever see people online at the same time, so discussion never really takes place. It's always: ask one question, get a response a day later, the response didn't answer the question, ask for clarification, get clarification, etc. etc. It's unproductive.


I agree with this sentiment, with the caveat that on Day 1 we had 4 relatively inactive members. Day 2 has not presented us with much more activity. It's impossible to draw an accurate read without some townreads. Conversely, this worries me because then all it will take for mafia to win is to just post more than the average (or lowest) player. I don't know if conventional scumhunting can be applied clearly and directly to this situation, at least in the case of inactivity.

Yimmy, one thing to note about your playstyle. In my opinion, your speech has become similar to the Thomas of old. If you've read through some of his games on here, he was oftentimes very accurate but was not able to articulate clearly as to why he thought the way he thought. This led to overall frustration by everyone else, especially when he was right, as he would just post his claims, then expect everyone else to follow along.

Now obviously, you don't fit this mark entirely, but regardless, it makes you difficult to work with while also not making the game enjoyable. Even if your reads are correct, it does no good if it is not expressed clearly to others.

You told me to "read your posts". This is not helpful. I have read all of the posts in this. I also find it incredibly frustrating that you use quotes ("") to refer to text that you have sarcastically made up to summarize Kro's claims. This is not helpful to the discussion, and there are better ways of actually stating in what ways you determine Kro as the scummiest that would allow me more insight into your inner workings. Why should I not believe Isa's Miller claim? Why do Kro's actions imbalance the odds of Isa faking Miller, especially considering that Isa's playstyle fit 99% in line with his past games and discussions on here?

That is to say: I am aware that Isa pushed hard for pressure on mymop at the start, but that is 100% in line with every town-aligned game he has played on here. Isa has also advocated strongly for the Miller to claim in the first post. With your notion that we are very likely to have a cop in our setup (despite us having heard nothing from them), which scenario is more probable?  



What are your thoughts on this in the context of Kro's contributions?

Jory, and others, it might be about time to post updated read lists.



The result of this is no alignment? Could you please elaborate on this? Specifically "it took a couple days of thinking about it to realize that". I believe you to be saying that it took you a while to realize that claiming Miller would backfire, but I want to make sure. As Isa has been the one to most extensively post about what the Miller should do, I would think that if he were scum, he would know not to fake claim; if most games have cops (per your post), then there is likely to be a Miller or some other variant to balance the power of the cop, and Isa would be outed incredibly quickly. I think you're underselling Isa by quite a bit to think that he wouldn't have figured that out.

Possibly, Isa night have banked on using his past games as easy credentials (note: I originally thought he was a bit quick to post about his previous experience), but ultimately it is more likely that he told the truth than that he lied. In this game, we have to weigh what our overall odds are. I wish that this discussion had taken place much earlier, as now we have to come back to this with limited discussion.

That's all for no, but I have more thoughts that I wish to post.

Unfortunately, it seems I got to rush off... I hope more people will discuss Isa's claim. sorry for triple post

1. Yimmy - I agree with what Soccerboy said.  I appreciate you contributing, but also I'd appreciate it more if it was easier to fully understand what exactly you were putting across. I can't tell if its scummy or just misguided town at this point in time.

2. Kro - I was convinced he was scum earlier, but what Soccer has been saying it casts a bit of doubt. I may have been hasty about my sock chewing comment but I am a man of my word.  Still leaning scum for now.

3. HB - one of those weird null reads. I don't have a lot to say about her play other than it's not very scummy, and I appreciate the relative activity

4. Soccer - Light town. Post a readlist for yourself too please. Brought up a lot of good points about the kro situation, enough to make me question it. One of the more active people.

5. Mymop - misguided noob town? Either that or null, and I'm not too happy with the amount of null I'm experiencing right now. Regardless of that, I initially scumread him but since that post he's been more pro town imo.

6. atvelonis - Similar to above, minus the initial scumread.

Judging from that readlist my two top scum candidates are Kro and one of my 4 null reads. That's incredibly frustrating.

The second scum, assuming kro is one of them, has been able to coast super easy. That's also frustrating.


Rereading soccers last posts, I think that's a valid point about Isa's play being consistent with his town playstyle seen previously. It's still hard to tell because we didn't get a lot of content from him, but I digress.
I keep reading back and some stuff about how Yimmy's been playing is kind of rubbing me the wrong way. I can't put my finger on it specifically but I'm not super thrilled about his last few posts. I'm gonna change my lean to scum rather than null.

Vote: Yimmy

that's because i stopped wanting to play the game, compounded by my general inability to communicate (i'll try to remedy it since it's irritating though) sorry that i was being snarky and rude

so i think it would backfire as scum because if there's no cop then there's no reason the mod would put in a miller.
I only realized that that could happen on the somewhere around the 20th which was after nearly a week of this being a hot topic (and during that point i cared about the game enough to think about it when i was away from the computer)

after the initial reads list he hasn't said much besides defending himself (the only real content that i saw on D2 at a quick glance was elaborating on his HB read).

While I don't know Kro as well as atvelonis, everything about him in real life— his dry, not-quite-emotionless tone, his impressive skills at all the video games that I've seen him play, and the things he mentions in conversations make me think of him as the next Elon Musk or something similar. I just have a hard time believing that someone as smart as Kro could stumble into a huge blunder. So I figured, if he is incapable of making a huge error, it would be good to try and analyze how lynching RG might benefit or harm Kro if he's town or scum. I guess maybe I didn't do a real analysis but rather a bunch of unfocused observations, but that's all I could think of.  

Man I wish neezles' friends spoke of me like THAT.

(Will post an updated reads list when I am no longer buried in schoolwork)

So I want to clarify:

You've said that cops are a super common role, so assuming this game is normal, there is likely a cop. Because of this, you believe that it would backfire for Isa to claim Miller if there's no cop, but because the chance is high, it would likely not backfire.

I am trying to get across that whether or not there is a cop, claiming Miller as scum would backfire.

If there is not a cop:
(your argument)

If there is a cop:
There is very likely to be a role that is meant to limit the cop's immediate power. If Isa is fake-claiming, then someone else has that role and can then see Isa to be faking. They could counterclaim relatively easily, as they are effectively Vanilla, and we could then discuss further there. Eventually it would come out that Isa would be lying, all on a gambit.

So, because in either case of there being a cop or no cop it is unwise for scum to fake claim as Miller, it follows that it would be illogical to claim Miller as scum. It seems that some have said something along the lines of that Isa would be aware of this and so he might do it anyway...

I would like to make further note that Isa claimed in his first post and before everyone had posted. If for example, I or mymop had gotten Miller or something similarly unbalancing, we could figure out that Isa's claim was fake. This, of course, does not prove anything, but it gives higher credibility to the claim in that if Isa were scum, he would have fake claimed with the knowledge that someone else could have the Miller role.

That would be bad play, especially for Isa.

Furthermore, we need to look at what possible gains Isa would have gotten if scum as to claiming Miller. If he were scum, he could have coasted along incredibly easily. As a townie claiming Miller, he would do so on the basis that it is necessary for him to do so. As scum fake-claiming Miller, his goal would be to make him look like town. There's no reason to take such unnecessarily high risk, unless he really wanted to screw with us or didn't care about the game.

This is all to say: could Isa have duped us? Yes, it's possible but highly unlikely given the scenario. It would be stupid to blindly accept Isa's claim, of course, but I think there is enough evidence to support that he was telling the truth, implying that Kro (Isa) is town.


I'll try to repeat my thoughts in order, in case it is unclear (still read the whole thing), as I feel this is important:
1. Claiming Miller as scum backfires in almost all cases (the exception being WIFOM mess)
2. Isa claimed immediately, with the knowledge that not all players had posted, giving credence to that it was not fake
3. Isa has posted extensively in the past regarding the notion that Millers should claim immediately, "
4. Isa's playstyle had been consistent with his playstyle as town, although we did not get the chance to see in full.
5. At the time of his claim, Isa would have gained little to nothing as scum by fakeclaiming, so it would not make sense to fakeclaim.
6. All of this information leads me to believe that it is most probable that Kro is town, because of the plays that Isa made beforehand.

Will post reads (aside from Kro because I think I've made my thoughts on him clear) soon.