I'm gonna start this day out by claiming. I'm a commuter, or more specifically a secret area. Aside from my vote my other ability is being able to commute, causing any actions targeting me to fail, which is why soccer got a no result on me, and why I think there was no night kill last night.

My thoughts on people are:

Soccer - Cop. Duh
Krotomo - I think the Yimmy flip kinda exonerates him, as Yimmy was very quick and persistant to call him scum, as well as Yimmy's calling him scum in his readlist. Guess I'm chewing a sock. Town Lean
Mymop - It's hard to get a read on him, but his latest posts have me leaning noobtown.
atvelonis - He hammered Yimmy, which doesn't mean much given the time constraint but I'm still leaning town.
HB - Out of the three left I think that she's the most likely scum partner via process of elimination.

Vote: HB

Also I've commuted every night.

I investigated mymop. He is town.

If you are curious as to why I chose mymop... I just got short on time and then didn't have time to re-evaluate after shos corrected his post about Yimmy being the role-cop. Of course, it was between mymop, HB, Jory, and atvelonis.

My initial suspicions toward mymop were because of yimmy's newbtown comment. Although I agreed with it, it was the quickest link I could remember, and whoops... I wrote all of my 10 page paper last night.

So on the +, we have one more confirmed town.
On the -, it's mymop who I think most people were generally feeling town vibes from.

My initial instinct was to try Jory again, but I had suspicions he was ascetic. This was undone by the role-blocker flip, but then un-undone by the correction. My mind got kinda tripped up, but I guess I'm glad I didn't try?


This cannot be said for certain as of your time of posting.

I am inclined to believe Jory's claim because Yimmy was a role cop and not a role blocker. I will assume that there is no role blocker (though I do not know this for sure) and that Jory is telling the truth for the rest of my argument:

Town Reads:

Mymop - Confirmed Town - guaranteed.
Jory - Very Likely Town - His claim fits well with my no result. As far as I know, there should not be a role blocker and a role cop together in mafia, though I could be wrong. Feel free to weigh in on this.
Kro - Likely Town, given Yimmy's strong push against, and again, I've expressed my thoughts greatly here.

This leaves us with two scum options under these assumptions:

HB or Atvelonis.

Both players have been relatively passive. No major drama has occurred with either of them; though, this is of no fault of their own presumably.

I look forward to hearing what each one of them has to say. They're in the hot seat.

I don't have much to say, but I believe Jorster's claim because (assuming I understand it correctly) it explains both why nobody died tonight and also why Soccer got no result from his investigation. Out of Soccer's two most likely scum candidates I can't figure out anything that would make a very strong argument against either of them.  

Though not guaranteed, I think Jorster is probably town. Soccer's reasoning for there not being a roleblocker and a rolecop on the same scum team makes sense. However, I would not base Jorster's town status solely on his actions against Yimmy. Remember that Yimmy was pretty sick of playing this game. It's possible that yimmy on some level wanted to get lynched, but wanted to give his scum buddy a fighting chance by letting himself get thrown under the bus. I would hesitate to call Jory town purely based off of his vote against Yimmy for this reason.

Soccer is 99.99% town. It's already been established that there is likely a cop in the game, so if soccer is scum and fake claiming to be a cop, then all the actual town cop would have to do is claim their role, and that would be a guaranteed win (assuming there's only one cop). For this reason, I find it highly unlikely that if soccerboy were scum, that he'd gamble on faking to be a cop. Also, mymop must 100% be town: soccer as town has no incentive to lie, and soccer as scum means he's alone.

Atvelonis, it's unlikely the scum chose not to kill anyone, rather someone had a role that prevented an attempted kill from being successful, such as doctor, jailkeeper, or commuter as Jory claims to be.

As soccer said, HB and atvelonis are the biggest scum candidates. Atvelonis's hammer vote is entirely meaningless because of yimmy's apathy and the time constraint.

Now, I guess we'll wait for HB... She's been online since the new day, though not by more than a few minutes.

I'm just gonna list out a bunch of reasons as to why there was no kill and go from there:

1) Mafia decided not to kill. Near zero
2) They forgot to come online. Well, exam season...
3) Targeted Jory, he hid. This is very plausible.
4) Targeted me, we have a doc and they protected me (thanks if this is the case ). Also likely.
5) Target else, doc save. Doesn't change much.
6) Jory is mafia ascetic (maybe 1-shot), and claimed so that no one would try to target him again. He would thus not be able to be killed since he would be the killer. From there, he could either have just not killed to try to get town cred (unlikely) or his kill got stopped and so he claimed to take advantage of the opportunity and not waste a kill-less night. This is more of a wild theory. Need to have some skepticism.

The simplest answer is 3 or 4/5.

Recently neither has been very active so it's hard to get a read on either. The advent of mymop being confirmed town has shifted my readlist. I'm not sure who I think is more likely to be scum, but I'm leaning hb. I'll leave my vote for now.

Ninja'd but doesn't change anything.

Lack of original thoughts forthcoming: I agree with Soccer that mafia choosing not to lynch anyone would be an extremely unlikely move, so Jorster being the commuter would explain that neatly. I'm inclined to believe his claim based on this alone. Assuming Soccer isn't pulling a long con on us, perhaps having communicated with Yimmy a roundabout plan to fool us into thinking he is the cop (which seems... implausible), it would be logical to go along with the result of his investigation and declare Mymop town as well.

Since I've previously read Kro as town, that leaves HB as my primary suspect for the other member of the mafia team. We don't have any hard evidence of this, though, mainly because she hasn't been very active since Day 1. I can't really say anything else about her until she comments.

I'm confused. Atvelonis, if you believe all 3 claims right now, and you yourself are town... HB is the only possible suspect for you. Why do you feel that you don't have evidence toward her? Assuming everything else, you should know. The only reason to not believe 100% that it's HB is either you don't believe one of the claims (from your posts, it appears that you do) or you're mafia.

Yes, through process of elimination HB is scum. I was just pointing out that while we have evidence that everyone else is not scum, HB hasn't done anything in particular that leads me to believe that she is scum, if that makes sense. There's still a small possibility that Kro could be mafia, because his role hasn't been explicitly confirmed.

Vote if you think she's the scummiest. Scumslip or just weird town play?  

Unofficially prodding HB. Last real post (I'm not counting the I'll post soon) was 6 days ago, 3 pages ago.

VOTECOUNT OF THE DAY

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day ends in: March 29, 1:00 p.m. INTERGUILD TIME.

aych bee (1) - Jorster.

NOT VOTING:
aych bee, mymop, Soccerboy, Krotomo, atvelonis.


Nobody is due prods yet.

Kro, what can you say that will solidify your role as the Miller? i.e. why should atvelonis (or any of us for that matter) believe it? Between HB and Atvelonis, who are you leaning towards?

So I guess this can be rephrased as "show you are town" because there's no reason a non-Miller town would claim to be Miller. I would look first at yimmy: he was the main person making arguments for my lynch during Day 2, and did so throughout the entire length of the Day, not just toward the end of it. Furthermore, yimmy expressed suspicion/indifference towards Isa's Miller claim during Day 1, while others had Isa as more town-leaning because of it. As for my own play, I thought I improved significantly when it came to trying to find scum/town during Day 2: after my terrible first few posts, I found myself unable to come up with reads, but towards the end of the Day (mainly from page 10 on) I felt I was able to contribute more analysis. I pressured yimmy (admittedly not so important because it was near the end of the Day and he was the main lynch candidate), but was also one of just a few to pressure you, soccer, in an effort to make sure you were on our side. Also, the HatPC object tied to my Miller role is a fake tile.



Probably atvelonis, by a little bit, though to be honest I'm not reading either one as super scummy, even though one of them probably is. I thought his recent post where he thought the scum decided not to lynch anyone was kinda suspicious. I assumed that at this point atvelonis would understand that roles exist that can block mafia kills- I figured that out pretty quickly, and I started playing quite a bit later than him. Atvelonis's post felt to me like an attempt to fake ignorance in order to seem more innocent. But maybe this is nothing- like I said, I'm not reading either one as very scummy.

I think the main reason that HB bothers me (and others) is her inactivity. However, I don't really know how a solo scum would react to being the last one left alive. Maybe they would feel pressured and become active, or maybe they would feel more engaged and post frequently. There's also many real-life factors that one cannot know about that can contribute to activity. I would also like to note that while HB is less active than atvelonis, the few posts that she does make contain more useful analysis than atvelonis's. I especially like how she suggested that the Cop investigate soccer (before he was found to be Cop) in her read list; that's not the sort of thing I would expect scum to come up with. That being said, I'll admit that I'm still a little bit suspicious towards HB for her posts against rocketguy in Day 1, though significantly less than I was at first.

Prod hb pls
Vote: Atvelonis
Hb has gone off in to the aether so I think we should be focusing on something more productive than sitting here and waiting.
Why should we not lynch you over her? If hb is town, it's way too easy for scum to just coast right now.

It's between Kro, atvelonis, and hb. Kro's post has helped me lean town on him, so for me it's really between the two of them.

I mean, I agree we shouldn't just be sitting here waiting, but we really do need them to come back in order to figure this out.

Mymop, if you're reading this, please do not take your confirmation as town to mean that you don't have to do anything anymore.

So for the past couple days or so I've been compiling a list of interactions.

Day 1:

Yimmy -> HB:



HB -> Yimmy:


Yimmy -> atvelonis:





Atvelonis -> Yimmy:




Day 2:

Yimmy -> HB:



HB -> Yimmy:


Yimmy -> Atvelonis:



Atvelonis -> Yimmy:









I will post thoughts in a separate post.

Seeing all these posts in one place has made me start leaning atvelonis. Yimmy seemed to be doing that thing where he distances from atvelonis but at the same time doesn't put him in any real danger. Having said that, he may have also been trying to distance from HB by calling her out more, but WIFOM WIFOM etc etc. My vote stays for now

I think Kro's post is solid, but I do disagree with the second part of your analysis. When HB posted about asking the cop to investigate me, I declined to make a comment because I wanted to first see how others would respond/who would pick up on it. I viewed it as scummy. To me, it seemed that she was fishing for the cop to out themselves (i.e a similar thing to what yimmy did).

As for who I think is the second part of yimmy's scum team:

Day 1:

HB & Yimmy: barely talked to each other. From what they did say, it seems slightly suspect. I would hardly call yimmy's play as open to new ideas.

Atvelonis & Yimmy: first of note, yimmy immediately singles out atvelonis to try to play the game this time around. This kinda pulled on their Day 0 interactions, but their interactions regarding inactivity stand out to me as very odd. In essence, yimmy singled atvelonis out early, multiple times for no good reason; later, he rarely talked about atvelonis' activity, or rather did not find it scummy when everyone else was.

Day 2:

HB & Yimmy: Yimmy immediately defends HB. I'm not sure if this indicated alignment, and honestly doesn't seem too odd considering it was in the wake of the hammer. I will note that HB did find yimmy to be leaning scum here.

Atvelonis & Yimmy: I get the vibe that if atvelonis is scum, he's just following yimmy's lead. Appears very much in the realm of having 0 insight on each other, while making it look like there is. Coupled with just so many.... strange, for lack of a better word, posts that atvelonis has made, I'm leaning him.

Also to note: in the quote



I just cut off the rest of the paragraph since it wasn't totally relevant.

Of course, now we have to wait for a response from atvelonis and HB...

Can we just talk about this for a moment:



Like Kro said, does he really not know that kills can be blocked? Or is he trying to fake VI?

Also, his reluctance to put a vote on HB seemed really off to me. So HB is the only potential scum candidate for him... but he doesn't want to vote her? He had already expressed belief in everyone's claims... my perspective leads me to believe that if he were mafia, he just wouldn't view it in the same "process of elimination" sense.

This all being said, I'm going to wait until HB & Atvelonis post before voting so that I can put my pressure on accordingly.

I know. If I believed I was free from obligations I wouldn't have bothered to post on Thursday. The reason I wasn't on yesterday was because things seemed to be slowing down a bit so I figured I'd wait a bit longer so that I'd have more information and be able to make a more meaningful post.

I'm no longer very suspicious of Kro; recently his reasoning has been similar to mine, which is a good sign. He hasn't done anything that seems scummy recently and after re-reading his arguments for why he cast his vote on RG it seems a lot more reasonable now.

I have a couple of thoughts on HB. First, her inactivity could be due to apathy. Upon thinking of this I was reminded about how Yimmy was acting unenthusiastic about the game not long before he was lynched. While HB's inactivity could just be due to being busy in real life I think this could be significant. Also, one of Kro's statements (from his very first post, which I think indicates that he didn't say it simply as an excuse) points to HB being scum:

Since RG was town, Kro's logic suggests that either HB or Jorster is scum, and I believe that Jorster is town.

Soccer's archive (or catalog or whatever you want to call it) doesn't give any clear answer to whether HB or atvelonis is scum; both HB and atvelonis's posts about Yimmy (and Yimmy's posts about them) seem like they could be logical for both town and scum. However, his analysis of these posts suggests that HB is scum. One more thing:

Yimmy did yell at me a couple of times for my inactivity. Overall I don't think his criticism of atvelonis's inactivity or mine says much.

On atvelonis:

This seems towny to me because he says he desires real evidence in addition to process of elimination.

My conclusion is that HB is somewhat more likely to be scum than atvelonis. While this conclusion is by no means certain I think it's worthy of a vote.
Vote: aych bee

VOTECOUNT OF THE DAY

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
Day ends in: March 29, 1:00 p.m. INTERGUILD TIME.

atvelonis (1) - Jorster.
aych bee (1) - Mymop.

NOT VOTING:
aych bee, Soccerboy, Krotomo, atvelonis.


aych bee has been prodded. Prods are not given by request, but by time since last post.  

I'm voting atvelonis
Thank you for prodding her

Ok, lol. I currently feel like an ant under a magnifying glass.

Starting from the end of the previous day, I'd say that atvelonis' hammering of Yimmy says nothing about the former's alignment. There's no way I can prove it, so you'll have to take my word that, if I'd managed to get online earlier that evening, then I would've done the same thing. I don't think we can read too much into the fact that nobody was killed. What I STRONGLY suspect is that Soccer was targeted but he was roleblocked, which implies that there is a town-aligned roleblocker in this game. Unfortunately I don't feel like it would be productive to attempt to find the roleblocker by analysing previous posts.

Given that I see no reason not to believe Soccer's claim, that Mymop has been confirmed as town, and that I've explained in my second readlist why I feel like Kro/Jory are town, my conclusion ends up being a mirror image of atvelonis. Which is why I've been kind of hesitant to post because I do not have anything significant to contribute. But I'd like to thank Soccer for compiling the interactions list, because I had completely forgotten that Yimmy initially voted for atvelonis, which seems like a blatant (yet low-risk) attempt to distance himself from the latter. Like, assuming that atvelonis got lynched early on and was revealed as Mafia, then Yimmy could've easily defended himself by saying "oh wait but I voted for him D1." So I really don't have anything significant to contribute. I guess I'll wait for atvelonis to post?

FoS: atvelonis